The YouGov poll, released 2nd September and from 1063 Scottish adults, puts Better Together in the lead with 47%, compared with 42% for Yes. The figures then become an incredibly close 53%-47% when 'don't knows' are excluded.
But the most interesting data becomes apparent when one looks at the results in detail, particularly when looking at age:
In the 16-24 year old group 45% are planning to vote 'yes' and 44% plan to vote 'no'.
For those aged 25-39, the gap is much wider with 49%-38%, placing the 'Yes' camp eleven points ahead.
Those aged 40-59 marginally plan on voting in favour of independence with 47% to 45%.
So far in these groups 'Yes' is obviously gaining ground. However, for those 60+ only 29% intend to vote 'yes', whereas a solid majority of 63% are in favour of the union.
In the previous YouGov poll, Yes only won over 16-24 year olds with figures at 42%-40% in favour of independence, whereas all other age groups intended to vote ‘no’.
Whilst the number of people questioned in each group is smaller than the entire sample size, which increases the margin of error, there is an increasing movement of support towards a ‘Yes’ vote.
Peter Kellner, President of YouGov, on YouGov’s site, says that of the people questioned in the most recent poll 500 had been questioned before, suggesting that the swing is real. He then went onto say, in his analysis of the recent poll, that: ‘The net movement among this before-and-after section of our panel is in line with our overall figure’, making the case of a very real swing towards a ‘yes’ vote.
The 2nd September poll also showed that 85% of people are absolutely certain to vote, or have already done so by post, up 3 points from the previous poll, showing the continued real engagement in the democratic process not seen outside the referendum debate.
Additionally, 46% of males intend to vote ‘no’ whilst 48% are in favour of an independent Scotland. The ‘Yes’ camp are still struggling to win over women voters with 50% intending to vote ‘no’, thirteen points ahead of the 37% favouring independence.
Furthermore, the C2DE social grade is split evenly with 44% supporting ‘Yes’ and the other 44% supporting ‘Better Together’. For the ABC1 social grade the majority intend to vote ‘no’ with a lead of thirteen points (53%-40%).
The vote on September 18th is going to be a close one, but there can only be one winner. With two weeks to go, ‘Yes’ is gaining momentum. Fueled by the most recent TV debate, which was won by Alex Salmond according to a snap poll afterwards and numerous political pundits, there is a very real possibility that Scotland could become an independent country.
In the same analysis of the most recent YouGov poll, Peter Kellner suggested that if the current polling data turns out to be correct then it is likely that there could be another referendum ‘within the next 10-15’ years.
With tensions mounting and those under sixty apparently more in favour of independence than those over sixty, then such an outcome of ‘neverendum’ seems far from unlikely.
The full results of the YouGov poll (28th August - 1st September) can be found here: http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/02/full-results-scottish-independence-28th-august-1st/.