Arsenal are seemingly tasked with mission impossible for their second leg against Bayern Munich in March.
Even though Arsenal claimed a 2-0 victory at the Allianz Arena last season, demonstrating that such a result is achievable, the club are considerably unlikely to do so again, according to a statistics guru, who has calculated from past results and the likelihood of Champions League progression, that Bayern Munich are a 97.5% lock to secure a route to the quarter-final.
Bayern beat the Gunners by two goals at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday, February 19 in a match that saw the dismissal of Wojciech Szczesny for bringing down Arjen Robben in the penalty area. The Poland international will now be suspended for the return leg on March 11.
According to calculations from Mister Chip, there have only been eight of 326 teams to overturn a 2-0 away goal deficit and guarantee their continued active status in the competition, meaning Arsenal have a 2.5% chance of overseeing Bayern.
318 teams (out of 326) winning 2-0 away in the 1st leg have progressed to the next round in European competition (a 97,5% chance for Bayern)— MisterChip (English) (@MisterChiping) February 19, 2014
In the other Champions League tie on Wednesday night, Atletico Madrid beat AC Milan 1-0 at the San Siro. Mister Chip remarked that the Spanish side have a 87.6% chance of progressing to the quarter-final as '474 teams (out of 541) winning 0-1 away in the 1st leg have progressed to the next round in European competition.'