Educated Guesswork: Chelsea v Tottenham

Who will win the huge encounter between Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur this evening?

With only a few games remaining before the curtains close on the season - there are still a number of issues yet to be resolved.

With Wigan taking a firm step towards relegation last night - the focus tonight turns to a clash at the top of the table between two Premiership giants in a London derby that could have massive consequences in the battle for a Champions League place.

This evening Tottenham take on Chelsea at Stamford Bridge – but who will emerge victorious? What do the stats say? 

There has been loads of talk about Chelsea and their management situation in the last few months - because in truth the majority of Chelsea fans have been unhappy with Rafa Benitez being placed at the helm of the club.

But with the frustration of fans and Abramovich’s apparent courting of Mourinho taking centre stage in the media – on the football pitch Chelsea have quietly built the best home form in the Premiership over the last 6 games (6 wins out of 6 with an impressive record of scoring 13 goals and conceding 3).

Chelsea boast the 3rd best attacking record in the Premiership at home (scoring on average over 2 goals a game) whilst also possessing the 2nd best home defensive record this season (keeping a clean sheet in 47% of games). Getting a result at Stamford Bridge is not an easy task for any club – but perhaps Spurs have a better chance of a result than the others? 

Tottenham have the 4th best away record in the Premiership over the last 6 games (scoring 11 goals and conceding 9) – but whilst their away attacking play has heavily benefitted from having Gareth Bale in their ranks (they rank as 2nd overall scoring on average 1.94 goals per game and have failed to score in just 6% of away games) it has come at the cost of a poor defensive record as they rank 9th in comparison with the other teams.

Games involving Tottenham do have a very high total goals percentage though – 82% of Spurs games finish with more than 2.5 goals in a game. And I can’t see any reason for that to change this evening.

As we saw yesterday – stats can’t tell everything and some performances come out of the blue or against a run of form. But with Chelsea’s home record and Tottenham’s away defensive record taken into account I’m pretty confident that there will be goals (and a number of them) in this game. 

Prediction: Chelsea 3 Tottenham 1

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