Educated Guesswork: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City

While we don't know who will win between Wigan and Swansea tonight, we can take a good estimate...

The battle to avoid relegation in the Premiership this season has been anything but straight forward and at the weekend events took another twist in Wigan’s favour.

Whilst QPR and Reading are already planning for their futures in the Championship – Wigan have (again) mounted a last minute fight to emerge from relegation certainties to having a genuine chance to avoid relegation at the expense of Newcastle, Norwich or Sunderland.

This evening Wigan take on Swansea in their game in hand over the other relegation threatened clubs. A win would see them move out of the relegation zone on goal difference. But how likely is that? Looking at the stats what is the most likely outcome?

Whilst Wigan’s home form this season has been their downfall – they are unbeaten at home over the last 3 games.

Their attacking play sees them ranked as 14th in the league having only failed to score in 29% of their home league matches - however Wigan have kept a clean sheet in just 6% of their games at home this season.

With a defensive record like that – winning at home is always going to be tough. It’s a good job then that on the road Swansea are having some problems of their own.

Over their last 6 away games – Swansea are ranked 20th in the league. They have scored 3 goals and conceded 12.

They have drawn 2 games and lost 4. Overall - Swansea struggle to score away from home - and have failed to score in 59% of their away games this season whilst they concede on average over a goal a game.

I don’t think this evening is going to make comfortable viewing for the clubs looking over their shoulders. Given Wigan’s trademark late surge of form and Swansea’s recent woeful away results I can see Wigan walking away with all 3 points here.

Prediction: Wigan 3 – Swansea 1

image: © illarterate

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