2010 Bonus Predictions - By Job Groupings

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2010 year-end is likely to be another interesting time, as firms have enjoyed a relatively decent first-half, but concerns are growing about revenues in the second period, as the economic recovery falters.

Hiring freezes and job losses are also features of the current environment, and that provides some clue that all might not be as rosy on the bonus front this year as seemed likely just a short while ago. The general consensus, however, is that bonus pools could be up as much as 15% up for 2010, although there are likely to be some significant losers compared to last year.

Here are our predictions for 2010 average bonuses increases / decreases undertaken on a job grouping basis:

Front Office 

Sales & Trading

Commodities - plus 15%

Derivatives - flat

Equities - minus 10%

Fixed Income - minus 25%

FX / Money Markets - plus 10%

Others

Corporate Banking - flat

Fund Managers - plus 5%

Hedge Fund Managers - plus 10%

M&A - minus 15%

Private Bankers - plus 10%

Private Equity / Venture Capital - flat

Middle Office

Compliance & Legal - plus 10%

Credit - flat

Global Custody - flat

Investor Relations / PR - plus 5%

Quants - plus 5%

Prime Brokerage - plus 10%

Research - flat

Risk Management - plus 10%

Support

Finance - flat

Human Resources - flat

Information Technology - flat / minus 5%

Operations - flat / minus 5%

Note - all predictions are predicated on the basis of acceptable performance

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