And Goldman Sachs Says The Probable World Cup Winner Will Be...

Brazil.

Goldman Sachs has released the comprehensive 'The World Cup and Economics 2010' report.

Here's an extract from the report:

'In The World Cup and Economics 2010 we repeat an intriguing exercise that we first presented in the 2006 issue. We attempt to calculate 'objective' probabilities for the likely winner of the Cup. As in 2006, this should be a useful aid to our own guesses.

We have combined official FIFA rankings and odds from a number of different bookmakers to create a probability model that also penalises teams according to how tough their schedule is on average.

Our model-probabilities are intuitive to a large extent. Brazil comes out as the favourite for yet another World Cup, with a probability of just under 14% of winning the tournament. As opposed to 2006, when England was our runner-up, this time our model places Spain second, with more than a 10% chance of winning the Cup.

Germany and England come as the close third and fourth favourites. Slightly below England comes Messi's Argentina, while Netherlands, Italy and France have roughly between a 6% and 7% chance of taking the Cup home.

The USA, Serbia, Mexico, Portugal, Uruguay, Greece and Nigeria all have a similar chance of winning the finals (about 2%), according to our model. Unfortunately, host country South Africa has less than a 1% probability of emerging as victor.

As always, we look forward to another exciting competition, full of surprises and outstanding games from both favourites and outsiders. After all, it is the element of the unexpected that makes football so intriguing'.

Themistoklis Fiotakis

Who Will Win The 2010 World Cup ?

GS Probabilities

• Brazil 13.76%

• Spain - 10.46%

• Germany - 9.40%

• England - 9.38%

• Argentina - 9.08%

• Netherlands - 7.07%

• Italy - 6.46%

• France - 6.13%

• USA - 2.81%

• Serbia - 2.61%

• Mexico - 2.40%

• Portugal - 2.32%

• Uruguay - 2.11%

• Greece - 1.84%

• Nigeria - 1.76%

• Australia - 1.69%

• Ghana - 1.63%

• Cameroon - 1.12%

• Paraguay - 1.06%

• Slovenia - 1.06%

• Chile - 0.87%

• South Korea - 0.76%

• Denmark - 0.74%

• Algeria - 0.69%

• South Africa - 0.68%

• Ivory Coast - 0.55%

• Slovakia - 0.52%

• Japan - 0.44%

• Switzerland - 0.35%

• New Zealand - 0.11%

• Honduras - 0.11%

• North Korea - 0.05%

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